Scenario: News
Newspaper for 1st June 2015
Threats and Opportunities - The New Energy Paradigm
At the ASPO conference in Cork in May 2006, the delegates were asked to finish they day by coming up with a list of what they saw as the key threats and opportunities for the Cork region posed by the paradigm change that will be brought about by increases in energy prices.
Threats
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Price
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If prices continue to rise this will have a major impact on business.
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Stability of Supply
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Once supply of oil and gas cannot reach demand, or countries who supply or have pipelines passing through start using supply for political reasons, we can no longer count on having a predictable supply of energy. We are at the end of the gas pipeline from Russia and cannot count on top-up supplies from the UK interconnector if the UK also experiences gas supply problems. Gas is not the major source of energy for electricity generation in Ireland. We are not currently prepared for intermittent supply of energy.
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Lack of Energy Policy
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We have no policy to help us prepare for changes in energy price and supply. Requirements for an Energy Policy developed by the Envisioning Ireland’s Energy Future Conference last year are here: Requirements for an Energy Policy for Ireland
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Apathy
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Although Energy has made it onto the agenda, there is still a lack of commitment to understand and make the necessary fundamental changes necessary to protect our energy supply.
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Political Inflexibility
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Business as usual mindset.
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Further Loss of Competitiveness
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Ireland has the potential to become an attractive location for business with it’s own supply of low cost energy. However without major investment we are likely to become a country with one of the highest energy costs as we already import nearly 90% of our energy needs.
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Continued Commuting Pattern s
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Nobody wants to commute but conditions have made it a fact of life for many with few alternatives currently available.
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Failure to develop Strategy
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The current thinking is probably “We know there is a problem with energy, but we just need to find the right technology (maybe nuclear) and we can continue with business as usual”. Whereas the solution has to be a mixture of energy supplies and there is no plan to develop and deliver that mix.
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Cork County Council
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No comment.
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Plastics
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Plastics are a wonderfully flexible, lightweight and durable material but they are nearly all made from oil. There are alternatives, made from plant materials which are more expensive. Plastics are also highly recyclable, but without standardising the types of plastics, most plastics can only be recycled into lower grade materials.
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Pharma chem need to retool
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The impact on an important local industry needs to be understood and changes required supported.
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Peak Soil
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Our current methods of agriculture depend on low cost oil and gas products for pesticides and fertilisers. Their long term use has led to soil which can no longer grow crops without their use. If we want to grow more food crops in Ireland (as transport prices increase) but our land depends on expensive fertilisers this will increase our food prices.
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Oppotunities
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Agriculture
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Biofuels and local food production can both provide a new source of revenue for our beleaguered farmers.
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Energy Production
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Energy can be produced from wind, wave, solar, hydro, biomass. There is a wide range of opportunities here particularly if the energy can be sourced, generated and used at the same locations - reducing transport costs and energy distribution losses.
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Expertise in Energy that can be exported
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We already export our knowledge of wind power
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Sense of community regained
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Changes likely to reverse some of the current trends where work patterns, shopping patterns and social networks have meant we have little contact with those we live close to.
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Education
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New skills in energy production and support industries. Move need for repair rather than replacement of goods. Many new openings for small businesses as new markets develop.
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Waste
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What is currently viewed as waste can also be the feedstock for new businesses including energy generation.
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Broadband/Teleworking
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To reduce commuting and take advantage of opportunites to work online for companies worldwide.
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Public Transport
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Opportunities to provide alternatives to the one person one car culture.
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Relocalise heavy industry
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Transport costs/energy costs change business case for many industries. May make more sense to manufacture closer to markets.
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Sustainable textiles
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Much closing currently made from oil based fabrics. Market for new (and old) fabrics including wool and hemp.
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Horses
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If new technology is applied to horse driven equipment, the horse may provide a cost effective alternative for some tasks.
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Ports
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Transport by sea is significantly cheaper than road, rail or air. We could redevelop our large and small ports to provide a low-cost transport network for certain goods.
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Energy Enablers
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In the days of the gold rush, the astute businessman did not look for gold but sold pans to those who did. There will be many new business opportunities in supporting the move to a new model of generation, distribution and usage of energy.
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Posted by on 06/07 at 07:21 PM
