Sign of the Times - Rental customers don't want an upgrade

by Phoebe Bright

There has been a longstanding tradition among car rental agencies to push renters up to bigger, more expensive models. Not that it was all that difficult to do, considering that Americans tend to prefer larger vehicles when all other aspects are equal. Now, though, not all of those aspects are equal, as bigger vehicles are usually thirstier vehicles and the renter is required to return the vehicle with a full tank of gas. So, the act of stepping up to a Hemi-powered Dodge Charger from a four-banger equipped Caliber no longer holds the allure that it once did.

A side effect of users sticking to their smaller vehicle choices is a compact car shortage among rental agencies. This, of course, only makes matters worse as the companies will then do nearly anything to move the larger metal. One other result of the shortage is an increase in the cost to rent a small car and a corresponding decrease in cost to rent an SUV or minivan, which could help offset the higher gas bill.

http://www.autobloggreen.com/2008/07/01/rental-agencies-having-a-hard-time-upgrading-customers/

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Scenario Update - November 2007

by Phoebe Bright

When we started developing the scenarios 3 years ago, it seemed most likely that we would follow some version of the Business as Usual scenario.  Now times have changed and the future is less clear.  On the one hand it seems likely that oil is peaking (or plateauing as the oil industry seems to prefer!) but on the other, the mindset is still very much Business as Usual but with windmills, on a grand scale, and maybe some nuclear as well.  The threat from climate change also seems more real and immediate than it did 3 years ago, and while we may be able to significantly reduce our energy consumption by simply not wasting it, avoiding climate change may not be so easy.

On my optimistic days I believe we will wake up in time to solve our energy problems, albeit with some pain. Cap and Share is gaining interest, energy related businesses are springing up everywhere, companies are competing to show their green credentials.  On my pessimistic days I think about how we denied that there could possibly be an end to the property boom until it was happening, and believe we will cling onto our current way of life until we have few choices left and face a period of real hardship.  Or the climate might change everything…

Keywords: review

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Life imitates scenarios

by Phoebe Bright

Maybe we are in Englightened Transition?  We speculated that we might be selling “Electric producing rowing machine for sale”.  A gym in Hong Kong now generates some of it’s electricity from the efforts of it’s customers. But not much.

“The gym chain has rigged up 13 machines at one of its clubs here. When all of them are in use, the power generated amounts to about 300 watts, roughly enough to run three 27-inch television sets, five 60-watt light bulbs or several hundred video iPods. If all the exercise machines were in use 10 hours a day for a year, the gym could generate roughly $183 worth of electricity. At that rate, it would take about 82 years to pay off the initial $15,000 investment.”

See Here: http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB117270857656222691-3qllxXq2db3gi3uvYlQ53I8a_ak_20070308.html?mod=blogs
and here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/4900188.stm

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Output from Cork Environmental Forum Energy Plenary Sep 2006

by Phoebe Bright

Here is the first draft of output following the Cork Environmental Forum Energy Plenary of 20th September 2006.

I have tried to group and combine the five pages of output produced!  Please check that in doing so I have not missed out your contributions and also let me know if you had additional ideas following the plenary.  In would also be great to have website references that provide additional information or examples for our output.

Thanks for your participation.

READ MORE...

Keywords: cef  •  cork  •  energy

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Transport and Toursim - Draft Report

by Phoebe Bright

This is the first section of the report to go to the EPA that looks at the impact on transport and tourism of changing energy prices.

Any comments are welcome.

Sectoral_report_2_transport_2.pdf

Keywords: energy  •  ireland  •  scenario planning  •  transport

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The Hydrogen Economy - It doesn't add up

by Phoebe Bright

The Lucerne Fuel Cell Forum have announced that they will no longer be discussing hydrogen fuel cells as they see them as a dead end (there are many other types of fuel cell as well that are more promising).  Their logic seems so obvious, why havn’t we spotted it before?

It goes like this. We have electric cars that are powered from electricity produced by a fuel cell that was powered by hydrogen.  All good so far.  Hydrogen does not occur naturally in accessible form, so we make it by using electricity to split water into it’s components oxygen and hydrogen.  So the starting product is electricity and the end point is electricity and hydrogen is the storage medium.  Well that seems fair enough, you have to move the electricity somehow.  The real problem is efficiency.  If you were to take the electricity and store it in a battery in your car, you would get about 80% efficiency in terms of the energy you put in to the energy you got out.  If you go the hydrogen route you only get about 30% by the time you have converted into hydrogen, compressed and distributed it and run the hydrogen through the fuel cell.  So the reason we don’t just stick with batteries is...?

More here:

http://www.thewatt.com/article-1238-nested-1-0.html for a transcription of the podcast - Interview with Ulf Bossel - Hydrogen vs Electron Economy

Keywords: energy  •  fuel cells  •  hydrogen  •  transport

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Ireland's Bet on Peak Oil

by Phoebe Bright

Ireland, along with most of the western world, made a bet.  We bet that Oil production would not peak until we have developed a replacement.  We have not yet lost the bet, but the odds are shortening.  Is it still too late to hedge our bets and what will happen if we lose?

Click more below to read the article or Download the pdf

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Keywords: business  •  energy  •  ireland  •  peak oil  •  scenarios

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Threats and Opportunities - The New Energy Paradigm

by Phoebe Bright

At the ASPO conference in Cork in May 2006, the delegates were asked to finish they day by coming up with a list of what they saw as the key threats and opportunities for the Cork region posed by the paradigm change that will be brought about by increases in energy prices.

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Keywords: business  •  opportunities  •  peak oil  •  threats

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Foresight 2020 - Executives view of the future

by Phoebe Bright

Foresight 2020 - A report from the Economist Intelligence Unit, looks at economic,industry and corporate trends.  While there is much good stuff in this report, it made the mistake of asking people to think forward - what do you think the future has in store.  When we are asked that question, we usually come up with a picture that carries forward todays hopes and fears with a few personal theories that reflect our areas of expertise.  What we don’t take account of, is the unexpected, the changes that are coming from outside our area of expertise, and as we get older, the changes that are already happening but we are blissfully unaware of.

But ask us to look back from a future defined by global trends, and say what that future is like, and you unleash to power of the human mind to bring together large amounts of disparate information into a coherent story. 

READ MORE...

Keywords: energy  •  future  •  risk  •  scenario planning  •  scenarios

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Peak Oil on National Radio!

by Phoebe Bright

Phillip Boucher-Hayes presented a series of items this week on Five Seven Live on RTE 1 and our newspaper headlines from 2015 got a mention when Phoebe Bright was interviewed for the February 8th program. 

The series makes an excellant overview of Peak Oil and how it applies to Ireland.

List to the programs here: http://www.rte.ie/radio1/fivesevenlive/1052492.html

Keywords: ireland  •  peak oil  •  radio

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Are the media leading the way on sustainable development?

by Richard Douthwaite

The article below appeared on the BBC News website yesterday. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4648710.stm
It doesn’t tell us anything we don’t already know but its significance is that it shows that the issues it mentions are entering the mainstream, possibly before they have been taken onboard by Comhar, the National Sustainable Development Partnership, and almost certainly before they have been incorporated into the thinking behind the new National Development Plan.

Energy gap: Crisis for humanity?
By Richard Black
BBC News website environment correspondent

It is perhaps too early to talk of an energy “crisis”.

Steam rising from power plants over Moscow
Fossil fuels have been the cheapest and most convenient so far

But take your pick from terms like “serious concern” and “major issue” and you will not be far from the positions which analysts are increasingly adopting.

The reason for their concern can be found in a set of factors which are pulling in glaringly different directions:

* Demand for energy, in all its forms, is rising
* Supplies of key fuels - notably oil and gas - show signs of decline
* Mainstream climate science suggests that reducing greenhouse gas emissions within two decades would be a prudent thing to do
* Meanwhile the Earth’s population continues to rise, with the majority of its six billion people hankering after a richer lifestyle - which means a greater consumption of energy.

Keywords: comhar  •  media  •  sustainable development

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China takes the initiative in Energy Efficiency

by Phoebe Bright

China is planning to stop growth in energy use by taking energy efficiency seriously by doing all the things we should be doing.

Ten programs have been planned for energy efficiency in the next five-year period.

* Upgrade coal-burning industrial boilers (kilns)
* Local cogeneration
* Make use of exhaust heat and pressure
* Save and replace petroleum
* Energy conservation in electrical motors
* Optimization energy system
* Energy conservation in buildings
* Environment-friendly lighting
* Energy conservation in governmental departments
* Build monitoring and technical service system

More here: http://www.energybulletin.net/3566.html

Keywords: china  •  energy

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What do we want from the city of the future?

by Phoebe Bright

In 2003, North Shore City in New Zealand asked it’s citizens what sort of city they wanted for the future.  They were given three scenarios to help them decide:

Car City
* Moving vehicles is the focus - cars are our priority.
* New road space and expansion of existing roads provides more space for easier movement.
* More car parks would be built to accommodate more cars in our centres.
* ‘Hi-tech’ traffic management helps manage congestion by moving more vehicles round the city more easily.
More: http://www.northshorecity.govt.nz/transport_and_roads/better-transport/car-city.htm

Public Transport City
* Public transport services are fast and reliable. Buses are given priority over cars in congested areas.
* Buses and ferries are the beneficiaries of most infrastructure improvements.
* The new busway becomes the spine for an enhanced public transport network.
* Our centres are developed to improve the flow of people and to complement public transport.
More: http://www.northshorecity.govt.nz/transport_and_roads/better-transport/public-transport-city.htm

People City
* People are given priority over vehicles in main centres, improving safety and making them more attractive.
* People and jobs are more highly concentrated in main centres (This reduces the need to travel to work by car).
* Main centres are supported by high quality public transport.
* Local residential streets are made safer.
More: http://www.northshorecity.govt.nz/transport_and_roads/better-transport/people-city.htm

And the result?

Presented with three different transport planning scenarios, 49 per cent of respondents chose one with a public transport focus, while 29 per cent favoured more of a pedestrian/cycle friendly bias while 22 per cent wanted a cars-first focus.

Just over 60 per cent strongly agreed or agreed with spending more on public transport than cars, with 25 per cent strongly disagreeing or disagreeing. Sixty-three per cent agreed or strongly agreed that public transport should have priority over cars and 75 per cent agreed or strongly agreed that traffic congestion affects the environment.

What would the people of Dublin or Cork choose if asked?
Is the Car City a viable option in any scenario other than Business As Usual because of the infrastructure investment and ongoing high energy costs?

What do you think?

Keywords: planning  •  sustainable development  •  transport

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Feedback from Envisioning Ireland's Energy Future Conference

by Phoebe Bright

A selection of the feedback we had

What went well:

• Excellent private sector speakers
• Informed presentations that were educational
• Looking back from 2015

Even better if...

• Wider range of speakers including public sector.
• Presenters actually showing up
• More time to present the full range of scenarios

What stuck in your minds:

• The air of optimism and readiness to accept a changing world
• Transport process efficiency
• Diversity of issues, scale of challenge, level of uncertainty.
• Image of melting polar ice cap
• Necessity of developing the grid for distributed generation.

What you want to know more about:

• Housing sector/building efficiencies
• Storing energy
• Can we see the slides
• Scenarios/workshops at community level.

Who else needs to know?

• School children
• Politicians
• Industry Associations
• Professional Bodies
• IBEC
• ICTU
• IFA
• Newspapers

(in other words, everyone!)

Your bets on the price of oil on 31st December 2005 were remarkably consistant, between $62 and $75 with an average of $67. Keywords:

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Requirements for an Energy Policy for Ireland

by Phoebe Bright

These requirements were drawn together from group discussions held at the Envisioning Ireland’s Energy Future seminar, held in Dublin on 12th of October 2005. 

READ MORE...

Keywords: energy  •  ireland  •  policy

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